The “Department of the Air Force 2050” forecasts space as the decisive future warfighting domain.
Chinese military experts see US space strategy shifting from militarization towards active weaponization.
Key elements include enhanced space access, potential anti-satellite capabilities, and space-based missile defense.
Growing threats to US overseas bases are driving a move towards dispersed, distributed operations reliant on allies and advanced tech.
Implementing distributed operations faces significant funding, technological, and geopolitical hurdles.
Why It Matters?
This CCTV report offers insights from Chinese military analysts on evolving US strategic thought. It details perceived US intentions in space weaponization and future warfighting concepts like distributed operations. Understanding these US plans and the associated challenges, as viewed from China, is vital for assessing the trajectory of military competition and potential PLA responses. The focus on base vulnerability and space-based missile defense directly impacts regional security dynamics.
Tell Me More!
The United States military is increasingly focusing on the space domain for future conflicts. This shift is outlined in the "Department of the Air Force 2050" report. Chinese military analysts have examined the report's implications for US strategy.
The report predicts space will become the "decisive domain for nearly all military operations" by 2050. The US Air Force aims to use space for missile warning, targeting, communications, and battle management. Air superiority concepts are also changing, with forward bases seen as vulnerable to long-range precision strikes.
Military Expert Du Wenlong, on CCTV, analyzed US space strategy. He noted US expansion into space is long-standing, dating back to the Kennedy era's focus on the "high ground." While previously focused on militarization (using space assets for ground support), Du sees a shift towards weaponization. "Now, they view militarization as a major process and weaponization as a major trend," Du stated. He termed orbital engagement an additional combat domain, a concept some call "black war."
Du highlighted key trends in US space strategy. First is enhancing space access through military-civilian partnerships and rapid launch capabilities. "Joint military-civilian space access capability will increase rapidly," he predicted. Second is weaponization, evidenced by tests like the X-37B spaceplane, target capture, and refueling exercises. Du believes this points towards capabilities "to approach, destroy, or interfere with targets."
He also noted US focus on space interception, particularly against hypersonic missiles. Du suggested launching a "constellation" could enable space-based weapons to guide interceptors. "In Earth orbit, the U.S. wants not only defensive shields but also offensive spearheads," Du concluded.
Military Commentator Wei Dongxu focused on the report's concerns about base vulnerability. He cited Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall's emphasis on the insecurity of overseas bases during potential major power conflicts. Wei noted threats from "long-range cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and hypersonic missiles" that could neutralize these facilities.
Wei explained this vulnerability drives the US push for distributed operations. This involves "increased cooperation with allies, using more bases for force dispersal." The goal is to decentralize operations, supported by space-based intelligence and AI, allowing forces to disperse but aggregate quickly for attack.
However, Wei stressed the difficulty of this concept. "Achieving this operational concept is very difficult," he stated. It requires more funding, new technologies, and deep cooperation from allies. Wei concluded, "Currently, these aspects all face problems or obstructive factors." The analysis suggests the US faces major hurdles in realizing its vision for future warfare.
Source: https://tv.cctv.com/2025/04/28/VIDEatq5xPdgpSJxrARNsyKd250428.shtml
[兵器面面观]未来的25年 美军将会把目光更多地聚焦在太空领域
In the Next 25 Years, the US Military Will Focus More on the Space Domain
《2050空军部》报告预测，到2050年，美国空军所面临的战争形态将发生重大变化。太空领域将成为几乎所有军事行动的决定性战场。
到那时美空军将借助太空资源为联合部队提供全方位的作战支持。涵盖导弹预警和跟踪、核爆炸探测、实时瞄准、安全通信和战斗管理等领域。
与此同时制空权依然是决定军事行动成败的关键要素，但其实现方式、 时间和地点都可能发生显着变化。一方面，美军前沿部署基地极易遭受精确导弹攻击；
另一方面，随着射程更远、精度更高的导弹不断涌现，防空武器的交战范围正拓展至前所未有的广度。射程超过1600公里的制空武器的大量部署将使加油机等传统上相对安全的飞机面临较大威胁。
The "Department of the Air Force 2050" report predicts significant changes in warfare for the U.S. Air Force by 2050. Space will become the decisive domain for nearly all military operations.
The Air Force will leverage space resources to provide comprehensive combat support for joint forces. This includes missile warning and tracking, nuclear detonation detection, real-time targeting, secure communications, and battle management.
Meanwhile, air superiority remains key to military success. But how, when, and where it's achieved may change markedly. U.S. forward bases are highly vulnerable to precision missile attacks.
Also, increasingly long-range, high-precision missiles are expanding air defense engagement ranges unprecedentedly. The widespread deployment of air combat weapons with ranges exceeding 1,600 kilometers (1000 miles) will pose greater threats to traditionally safer aircraft like tankers.
《兵器面面观》主持人周瑜：刚才的短片当中提到，未来的25年美军将会把目光更多地聚焦在太空领域。杜先生您来给我们解读一下美国的太空战略如何？
Zhou Yu (host): The clip mentioned that in the next 25 years, the U.S. military will focus more on the space domain. Mr. Du, could you interpret the U.S. space strategy for us?
军事专家杜文龙：肯尼迪时代就声称，谁占领了制高点，谁就会在全球军事过程中赢得主动。所以美国军事在太空的扩张不是今天的事。
而之前美国要求太空军事化， 比如说各种侦察预警导航卫星全部用于地球地面资产的作战行动，但现在认为军事化有可能是个大进程，武器化是个大趋势。
如果把之前服务于地面作战行动改成在地球轨堂上交战，这样和其他国家相比，它多了个作战空间，所以很多人把这个过程叫“黑色战争”。因为大气层什么都看不到，之外就是太空。
所以美国目前，无论是2019年太空军的建立到现在各种军型卫星的发射，包括那个不知踪迹的X-37B（空天飞机）。他到底想做什么是大问题。目前看呢美国的所谓太空战略大概可以这样归纳。
Military Expert Du Wenlong: Since the Kennedy era, it was claimed that whoever controls the high ground wins initiative in global military affairs. So, U.S. military expansion into space is not new.
Previously, the U.S. pushed for space militarization. For example, various reconnaissance, early warning, and navigation satellites supported terrestrial combat operations. Now, they view militarization as a major process and weaponization as a major trend.
Shifting from supporting ground operations to engaging in Earth orbit gives them an additional combat domain compared to other nations. Many call this process "black war" because beyond the atmosphere, where nothing is visible, lies space.
Currently, from the establishment of the Space Force in 2019 to launching various military satellites, including the elusive X-37B spaceplane, what the U.S. truly intends is a major question. America's space strategy can likely be summarized as follows.
首先是进入太空。目前美国不光是这个军工企业，包括各军民种能够进入太空，他的民企也很多，所以下一步呢军民联合进入太空这个能力会快速增加，所以快速响应发射，包括这个卫星的双用途军民两用都会成为今后的发展趋势。
第二呢就是太空武器化。目前美国在太空中进行了空间飞机的试飞，而且还进行了对目标的捕获，包括燃料加注。也说明如果能够靠近目标，然后去催毁目标、干扰目标。
这是今后太空战点对点的一个重要发展趋势。另外美国还高度重视太空拦截，像他对高超音速导弹目前没有太好的办法。
但如果能够发射“星座”，然后依托星载武器装备引导地面武器装备联合作战，这样就可以对对方的高超音速等导弹进行拦截，而且引导自己武器装备搞攻击。所以下一步美国在地球轨道上，不光要有防御、有盾牌，更想要的是进攻的“矛尖”。
First is space access. Currently, not just U.S. defense contractors, but various military and civilian entities can access space; many private enterprises are involved. So, joint military-civilian space access capability will increase rapidly. Rapid response launch and dual-use (military-civilian) satellites will become future development trends.
Second is space weaponization. The U.S. has conducted spaceplane test flights and performed target captures, including refueling. This indicates the ability to approach, destroy, or interfere with targets.
This point-to-point capability is a key trend in future space warfare. The U.S. also highly values space interception. They currently lack effective means against hypersonic missiles.
But launching a "constellation" and using space-based weapons to guide ground-based assets in joint operations could enable interception of hypersonic missiles. It could also guide their own offensive strikes. Therefore, in Earth orbit, the U.S. wants not only defensive shields but also offensive spearheads.
《兵器面面观》主持人周瑜：不仅是进入太空，而且防御和进攻都会在这个高度来完成。另外在《2050年空军部》报告当中，还有这样的一句话说：到2050年美国将会面临来自任何射程任何领域包括太空发射的超远程精确武器的威胁。那关于报告当中这些关于超远程精确武器的描述，魏先生您如何解读？
Zhou Yu (host): Not just entering space, but defense and offense will occur at this altitude.
Also, the "Department of the Air Force 2050" report states: "In 2050, we should expect to be under the threat of ultra-long-range precision weapons at any range and launched from any domain, including space. There will be no sanctuary from these weapons."
Mr. Wei, how do you interpret the report's descriptions of these ultra-long-range precision weapons?
军事评论员魏东旭：肯德尔对于美国空军能够使用的海外军事基地是非常重视的。因为正是有着这些军事基地的保障支持，美国空军才可以进行全球部署、全球作战。
但是一旦美国挑起了大国冲突或者是大国战争，肯德尔认为这些海外军事基地的安全，他们是无法保障的，因为各种各样的远程火力打击体系是越来越完善，远射程的巡航导弹、弹道导弹、高超音速导弹是有能力针对这些海外军事基地去进行去功能化，对它进行火力覆盖、对它进行摧毁。
那么肯德尔认为如果没有办法针对这些海外的军事设施进行全方位的保护，美国空军有再多先进的战斗机、轰炸机，包括其他辅助类的作战平台也没有办法在遥远的区域去执行作战任务，更谈不上去战胜对手。
所以他现在提出美国要更多地去和盟友进行合作，利用更多的基地进行这种兵力的分散，也就是说在未来的25年之内美国空军的这种分布式的作战理念还要不断地推进。那么要把它传统的这样一个作战体系进行最大程度的分散化。
然后再利用天基的情报系统作为支撑，再利用人工智能系统作为保障，那么能够随时地进行这种力量的分配和调整，那么做到力量分配。
但是要执行进攻任务的时候，马上就可以进行这种作战体系的一个聚合，但是想要实现这样的一个作战意图难度是非常大的。
不仅要有越来越多的资金支持，可能还要有专门的保障技术，甚至还要有更多的盟友要和美国进行深度的配合。现在来看这些方面都面临一些问题或者说面临一些这种阻碍性的因素。
Military Commentator Wei Dongxu: Kendall places great importance on the overseas military bases available to the U.S. Air Force. Because these bases provide the support enabling global deployment and operations.
However, Kendall believes that if the U.S. provokes major power conflict or war, the security of these overseas bases cannot be guaranteed. Various long-range strike systems are becoming increasingly sophisticated. Long-range cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and hypersonic missiles can neutralize these bases through firepower saturation and destruction.
Kendall believes if these overseas facilities cannot be fully protected, the U.S. Air Force cannot execute missions in distant regions. This holds true regardless of having advanced fighters, bombers, or support platforms, let alone defeat adversaries.
So, he proposes increased cooperation with allies, using more bases for force dispersal. This means the Air Force's distributed operations concept must continue advancing over the next 25 years. They need to maximally decentralize their traditional operational architecture.
Then, use space-based intelligence for support and artificial intelligence for assurance. This allows flexible force allocation and adjustment.
Forces can be distributed but quickly aggregated for offensive missions when needed. Achieving this operational concept is very difficult.
It requires not only more funding but possibly specialized support technologies. It also needs more allies willing to cooperate deeply with the U.S. Currently, these aspects all face problems or obstructive factors.
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